Forecasting with AI

On October 9, Hurricane Milton hit the Florida coast. It was the fifth hurricane in 2024 to make landfall in the mainland United States. Storms like this have become more frequent and intense. Meteorologists are busy forecasting and tracking them (see “Safety First”). Artificial intelligence plays a big role in that process.

SEEKING SAFETY Thousands of people were ordered to evacuate Florida’s west coast before Hurricane Milton hit.

AI Advantages

For years, meteorologists have built digital models of storms. They use data gathered by planes, satellites, and buoys. These models can take hours to produce updated forecasts.

SWIRLING CLOUDS Hurricanes are large enough to be seen from space.

AI models are different. They use data from previous storms to find patterns. They quickly detect trends that most humans can’t. This year, AI models made accurate predictions within seconds. And they did so days in advance.

BE PREPARED A Tampa, Florida, resident helps set up a flood barrier in advance of Hurricane Milton.

Meteorologist Matt Lanza is based in Houston, Texas. Older models, Lanza says, accurately predicted where in Florida Hurricane Milton would land. But AI models “picked up on that potential × potential possible (adjective) outcome a good 12 to 18 hours before,” he says. Those hours can help people preparing for a storm’s impact.

GraphCast is an AI program. It predicted that Hurricane Beryl would hit Texas on July 8. An older model predicted Beryl would hit Mexico. GraphCast was right. The team behind it won a prize. One of the judges called GraphCast “a revolutionary × revolutionary game-changing; groundbreaking (adjective) advance.”

In September, Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana. The AI program AIFS predicted its path. That let Lanza tell his viewers in Texas that the storm likely wouldn’t be an issue for them.

WEATHER UPDATE President Biden attends a White House briefing about Hurricane Milton on October 9.

Room to Grow

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now uses AI in its forecasting. “The sophistication of AI has dramatically improved,” Jamie Rhome told NBC Miami. He’s the NHC’s deputy director.

But there are still hiccups. Lanza says that AI models struggle to predict a storm’s intensity and how much precipitation will fall. So for now, it’s important for meteorologists to use AI along with other forecasting tools.

Safety First

Meteorologists are scientists. They study the Earth’s atmosphere and weather patterns in order to make predictions. They can warn people about weather events.

Ashley Ruiz (above) is a meteorologist. She works in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. In 2022, Ruiz talked to TFK Kid Reporter Cash Daniels. She said that one of her favorite parts of the job is “getting out in the community. . . . Meeting the families who saw the forecast and were able to get to safety: It’s amazing.”